The Communist Party in China is facing a growing challenge from the younger generation. A significant number of individuals born in the late 90s have made the bold decision to forgo having children. Even more surprising, among those born after the year 2000, an astonishing 60-70% are opting out of parenthood.
This trend is further highlighted by the fact that 40% of couples who got married last year have no plans of starting a family. The defiance of the younger Chinese population towards the Communist Party's traditional values is becoming increasingly evident.
Regarding newborns last year, approximately 40-45% of them were born to couples who already had one child. As the post-2000 and post-2010 generations reach adulthood, the declining fertility rate will become more evident, potentially leading to a significant drop in the overall fertility rate. Currently, China is not experiencing any natural population growth. A recent survey conducted in Guangdong province revealed that only 11% of young women believe that marriage is a necessity, while more than two-thirds consider it unnecessary. A netizen shared that among the 15 female students in their class, fewer than five expressed a desire to have children. This sentiment is not limited to a specific province; in fact, in China's major cities, the percentage of individuals choosing to remain single and childless has already exceeded 65% in 2021. In Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, the rate of unmarried individuals among those eligible for marriage even surpassed 75%, with Shenzhen leading at an astonishing 85.45%.
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Marriage and childbirth, once considered essential milestones in life, are slowly losing their significance among the younger generation in China. Surprisingly, in just a span of six years, from 2017 to 2022, the number of marriages and newborns has plummeted by a staggering 40% and 50% respectively. This alarming decline has cast a shadow of negative population growth over the country. Adding to the concern, the proportion of Chinese citizens aged 65 and above has surpassed 14% of the total population, inching closer to the critical threshold of 20%. As the number of marriages dwindles and the younger population decreases, China's economy teeters on the edge of stagnation. Despite the Chinese government's persistent efforts to encourage young people to marry and have children, the youth of China remain hesitant. This reluctance poses a significant challenge for the authorities. In response, the Chinese Communist Party might resort to drastic measures. Unfortunately, the future appears bleak for the post-2000 and post-2010 generations, as they may become the sacrificial lambs of the Communist regime. The question then arises: why are young people in China reluctant to enter into matrimony?
In the concrete jungles of China's bustling cities, a new generation of ambitious youth navigates their way through the daily grind, fully immersed in the demanding 996 work culture. But when the weekends finally arrive, these young individuals are more inclined to indulge in worldly pleasures with their friends rather than endure the tiresome tradition of arranged blind dates set up by their parents. The search for a life partner has become an arduous and seemingly never-ending journey. As China's Reform and Opening-Up approach their fourth decade, the dreams and aspirations of the younger generation have evolved and diversified. Luxury cars, lavish villas, exotic travels, opulent five-star hotels, designer handbags, and even cosmetic surgery have all become coveted symbols of success. Especially in the digital realms of major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, a group of highly educated, talented, and attractive young women - approximately one million, which accounts for 10% of the female population in the same age bracket - find solace in following the lives of the super-rich on various social media platforms, reveling in their extravagant wealth. For the remaining 90% of women, the pursuit of wealth seems to be intertwined with the institution of marriage. However, ordinary young men, facing limited prospects for career advancement, find it challenging to meet the expectations of these women who yearn for a life of material abundance, complete with luxurious houses and fancy cars.
Consequently, these men choose to embrace the concept of "lying flat," essentially surrendering their aspirations for marriage. The youth in China today are undeniably drained. They bear the weight of conforming to societal expectations, having endured 16 years of intense education, only to realize that much of the knowledge they acquired holds little value in the real world. This leaves them with a profound sense of defeat. A significant portion, possibly comprising 30-40% of the younger generation, even grapple with depression. Despite these circumstances, they still hold onto their dreams, yearning to leave a mark on society. However, society deals them even harsher blows. They witness skyscrapers sprouting like bamboo shoots after a spring rain, admire the opulence of the wealthy and Fortune 500 companies, and observe the immense wealth possessed by government officials' families. Yet, for themselves, opportunities beyond menial, low-paying jobs are virtually non-existent. Consequently, many university graduates opt to pursue master's or doctoral degrees, hoping to postpone their entry into this high-pressure society.
However, even individuals who hold advanced degrees such as master's or doctoral degrees are unable to fully enjoy the benefits of society's prosperity. They find themselves compelled to work in lower-level positions like urban management and neighborhood committees. Even some undergraduates face the unfortunate predicament of unemployment and are forced to resort to freelancing. A post-millennial user on the popular Chinese forum, Zhihu, expressed their sentiments, saying, "I have no desire to have children. After going through the grueling college entrance examination and postgraduate entrance examination, I am completely drained. All I want is to live a peaceful life, surrounded by cats and dogs, and grow my own vegetables. I have started prioritizing my health, and before I pass away, I plan to donate all the money I have earned to those in need. Life is mine to live, and I believe it is perfectly fine to live it the way I desire." Since 2019, China's economic situation has been far from optimistic, with a rapid decline in economic growth. The workload for young people has become increasingly burdensome, while their income continues to decrease. Let's take Tianjin, one of China's directly administered municipalities, as an example.
According to the latest statistics for 2022, the median average salary in Tianjin stands at a mere 4200 yuan per month, which is approximately $330 USD. Shockingly, for those under the age of 25, this figure drops even further, ranging between 3900 to 4000 yuan. When you consider the high cost of living, it becomes evident that these income levels are woefully inadequate. It's no wonder that the younger generation feels a profound sense of dissatisfaction and despair. Their eyes reflect a longing for something more, as they witness the privileged few indulging in a life of luxury that seems unattainable to them. Their hearts ache with a deep yearning, and they secretly hope that they will be the last generation to endure this cycle of hardship. However, we must dig deeper and ask ourselves: why do they choose not to marry or have children? What drives their desire to start a family? The motivations of the government, which encourages procreation, and the aspirations of the people themselves are at odds. This disparity exposes a fundamental contradiction within Chinese society. In essence, the tension between the commodification of the population and the fragmentation of society is intensifying, resulting in a persistently low fertility rate.
The population's public productization signifies that every child born belongs to the Communist Party, while the society's atomization suggests that each individual has their own hopes and aspirations. The government believes that the more children people have, the stronger China's economy will become, leading to an improved quality of life. This belief has been ingrained in the minds of the people for a long time. However, the reality is not as straightforward. Looking back at the past few decades, China's birth rate has steadily declined, yet the country's economic growth does not follow the same pattern. In other words, the birth rate is not the sole determinant of China's economic performance, nor is it the primary one. So, what factors truly influence China's economy? By closely examining a statistical chart depicting China's economic growth, we discover significant growth in per capita GDP at three specific time points: 1980, 1990, and 2000. Now, the question arises: what exactly transpired during these three crucial periods?
In 1980, the reform and opening-up policy set the stage for the first wave of economic growth. Fast forward to 1990, after the Tiananmen Square incident, China's situation began to stabilize, catching the attention of the international community once again. This sparked the second wave of economic growth as investors reconsidered putting their money into China. Then, in 2000, China's entry into the World Trade Organization marked a significant milestone. It established an export trade economy and gave birth to the third wave of economic growth. It's important to note that these three pivotal events that triggered economic growth had nothing to do with the birth rate. Instead, they were closely tied to political and policy changes. This highlights that China's economic growth is primarily influenced by shifts in the political environment and adjustments in economic policies. Other factors such as the birth rate, labor force, and currency play a secondary role in this equation. Considering this, the Communist Party's recent encouragement for young people to have children raises suspicions of ulterior motives. After enforcing the one-child policy for 35 years, the CCP realized a sudden decline in China's population. This not only made China's economic development unsustainable but also posed a potential threat to the political foundation of the CCP's rule.
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Zhao Lijian, the spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, once referred to the Chinese people as the "Great Wall of Steel" for the Communist Party. According to this perspective, the thicker this wall becomes, the stronger the Communist Party's rule. But why is this the case? A former leader of the CCP shed some light on this matter. Imagine a scenario where the Communist Party collapses and China descends into chaos. Even if only half of the population were to become refugees, that would still amount to over 700 million people. If these refugees were to seek shelter in neighboring countries, it would undoubtedly create a catastrophic situation for any nation. Both China's neighboring countries and those in the West are well aware of this potential disaster, which is why they often turn a blind eye to the human rights abuses committed by the CCP within China. This allows the Communist Party to effectively hold 1.4 billion Chinese people as hostages. Therefore, a large population serves as a crucial bargaining chip for the CCP, providing them with the confidence and strength to maintain their rule.
Hence, according to the CCP's perspective, a greater number of individuals in China translates to greater benefits for them. Moreover, the population is not just seen as a mere statistic, but rather an immense and boundless asset that potentially surpasses the worth of natural resources like minerals, natural gas, and oil. With a massive population, China possesses the world's largest genetic pool, encompassing valuable human genetic data, stem cells, serum, organs, and more. These resources can be harnessed for scientific research or traded, serving a multitude of purposes. Essentially, the population resources stand as China's most prized and fundamental asset, representing the largest social public product and forming the very foundation of the Communist Party's authority and strength. Consequently, the Chinese government actively promotes population growth, firmly believing that a larger population ensures the stability and longevity of their rule.
However, the issue lies in the significant societal changes that China has experienced in recent decades. One notable transformation can be seen in the structure of households, which has shifted from an average of 4.4 individuals per household to a historic low of 2.6. Moreover, since 2004, there has been a steady increase in the number of single-person households, surpassing 25% nationwide and accounting for 125 million households in 2022. This clearly indicates that China has become a fragmented and highly individualistic society, reflecting a growing sense of social disconnection. This increasing social alienation is evident in the diminishing value individuals feel within society, their declining participation in social activities, the waning acceptance of traditional values, and the inadequate fulfillment of social responsibilities. The recent decline in China's birth rate is also a consequence of this heightened social alienation. In ancient societies, resistance to social disconnection often relied on religious beliefs and close-knit communities. In modern Western societies, extensive social organizations serve as bridges between individuals, integrating them into the larger social fabric to counteract social alienation. However, in China, due to political reasons, these intermediary organizations were dismantled by the Chinese Communist Party several decades ago.
The current Chinese government has strict regulations that prohibit the existence of any social intermediary organizations. Consequently, the society is left with only the government and individuals, resulting in a growing distance between people and society as well as between individuals themselves. This has given rise to a phenomenon known as "lying flat" or embracing a minimalistic lifestyle, particularly among the younger generation. Interestingly, this cultural shift can be traced back to the seeds planted by the CCP many decades ago. It also sheds light on the increasing reluctance of Chinese people to have children, which is not solely driven by rising costs but rather by a diminishing obedience to the party after four decades of reform and opening up. If individuals believe that having children does not align with their best interests, they simply choose not to pursue it. So, how can this issue be addressed within a market economy? One potential solution could involve transforming China into a society that prioritizes high welfare and security, thereby instilling a sense of value and purpose in the younger generation when it comes to starting a family.
However, China's current fiscal policy is primarily focused on achieving national rejuvenation and unification with Taiwan, along with other external endeavors. The government is cautious about investing heavily in improving the birth rate as it could deplete funds allocated for military and stability maintenance. This could potentially destabilize the central government system, which is not an option for the CCP. Instead, they are considering reverting to the pre-reform era, where the government had complete control over society, without any market economy or privatization. In this scenario, the government would not face any challenges or incur high fiscal costs, yet they could still encourage people to have children. There's a popular saying that encapsulates this notion: "The government holds sway over heaven, earth, and everything in between, and even exerts control over the reproductive choices of individuals." As a last resort, China might resort to intensified brainwashing to promote childbirth for the nation, potentially accompanied by punishment for those who refuse. This paints a rather unsettling picture of the future.